»Abenomics« und die Shunto 2014 : Der Einfluss von Einkommens-, Beschäftigungs-, Vermögens- und Bevölkerungsentwicklung für die Wachstumspolitik in Japan

›Abenomics‹ and the Shunto of 2014: The impact of income, employment, wealth and demographic developments on Japan’s growth policies

As export led growth is no longer an option for Japan, the stimulation of domestic demand through increased purchasing power is of decisive importance for the ultimate success or failure of Abenomics and its declared growth objectives. This article looks at income developments, wealth distribution, demographic trends and the structural changes in Japan’s labour market during the last two decades. Two parameters have been declared as decisive by the Abe government: the base wage increase during the spring offensive (Shunto) of 2014 and the increased employment of women in the qualified labour market. Hence they are analysed in greater detail. In conclusion we find the base wage increases too minimal and too partial (benefiting only a minority of the work force) to compensate for the income losses of the past decades and for the current inflation and sales tax hike. At the same time the government’s programmes for increased female labour participation and career enhancement appear once again to be too non-committal to make much of an impact. In conclusion, the article doubts the continued validity of pursuing growth policies in a highly developed country with saturated markets, with an acutely aging and shrinking population, with negative balances of trade and an out-migrating industrial base. It appears that the continued reliance on debt financed permanent growth stimuli is a rather too risky and ultimately self-defeating policy. Rather, the country should consider planned downsizing, with quality of life objectives in line with her population losses as a more sensible option.